Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x841a…61ad sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$650 (+16%) realized +$650 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%60W / 47L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$318
7 days+$352
14 days+$464
30 days+$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$553
other 21% −$91
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +27.5% +15.3% 56% 56% +7.2%
≤30d 107 +16.1% +5.0% 56% 52% +0.9%
≤90d 107 +16.1% +5.0% 56% 52% +0.9%
all 107 +16.1% +5.0% 56% 52% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 52% +0.9%
10% -5.0% 45% -8.8%
15% -14.2% 37% -17.6%
20% -22.6% 32% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses60 / 47
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage13d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 −$4 -13%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$49 +97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 +$42 +42%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $100 +$17 +17%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $31 +$21 +69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 −$1 -3%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $31 +$19 +61%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $37 +$13 +36%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +57%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $83 −$20 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Overwatch: Lazuli vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 24 $101 +$50 +49%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $65 +$35 +54%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $165 +$35 +21%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $40 +$60 +152%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $130 +$50 +39%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $106 +$34 +32%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $39 +$75 +192%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 +$8 +786%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $92 −$46 -50%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $41 +$35 +84%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$10 +52%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $22 −$16 -73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $27 +$23 +85%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $27 +$163 +612%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $12 +$24 +200%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 +$5 +16%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $12 +$28 +236%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $38 +$32 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 26m
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 SELL Under 78¢ $60 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $27 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $13 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $41 2h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $51 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $51 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Under 55¢ $52 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 2d
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $32 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $52 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $20 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $37 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $63 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $9 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records