Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:11:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x841a…fa04 politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$20
politics 38% −$21
sports 7% +$37
economics 6% −$2
tech 4% −$2
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 139 +1.0% -8.6% 6% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×12.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage130d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $336 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $288 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $252 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $285 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $514 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $329 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $293 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $297 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $232 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $505 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $259 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $324 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $266 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 9h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 9h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 11h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 11h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 21d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 22d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 26d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $288 27d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $288 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 30d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 30d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 30d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $285 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.99 · official $31.99 (match) · 413 history records