Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x841c…3b9e other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$47 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate71%46W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$8
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$5
crypto 20% +$66
politics 12% −$23
tech 5% −$25
sports 2% +$21
finance 1% +$11
world 1% −$20
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +19.7% +8.3% 68% 64% -8.9%
≤30d 28 +6.0% -4.1% 61% 57% -7.2%
≤90d 31 +7.5% -2.7% 65% 55% -7.0%
all 65 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 38% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 38% -8.3%
10% -18.5% 32% -17.1%
15% -26.4% 29% -25.1%
20% -33.6% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$30 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses46 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage229d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$39 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $130 +$8 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $111 +$89 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 22? May 22 $3 +$2 +59%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Feb 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Feb 22 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Feb 22 $40 +$3 +9%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Feb 22 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? Nov 30 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Meta reach $910 in November? Nov 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 19? Nov 19 $13 −$13 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? Nov 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 15? Nov 16 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 11-17? Nov 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Aster all time high by December 31? Nov 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $268 in November? Nov 13 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elec Nov 13 $60 +$3 +4%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on November 12? Nov 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12? Nov 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 12? Nov 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $130 7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.18 · official $249.18 · 122 history records