Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x841d…f06e sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,813 (-28%) realized −$2,667 · open −$146
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,772
14 days−$2,772
30 days−$2,772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,126
politics 22% −$1,793
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 43% -40.5%
≤30d 28 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 43% -40.5%
≤90d 28 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 43% -40.5%
all 28 -10.5% -19.0% 46% 43% -40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 43% -40.5%
10% -26.8% 43% -46.2%
15% -33.9% 36% -51.4%
20% -40.3% 36% -56.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$325 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,667
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) FUT Esports 51¢ $148 $1 −$146 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$103 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $79 +$21 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $63 +$16 +26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $1,388 −$1,023 -74%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $808 −$770 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $286 −$280 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 13 $146 −$143 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $286 −$280 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $287 −$281 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $414 −$406 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $186 +$229 +124%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $108 +$77 +71%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $273 −$218 -80%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $268 −$262 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $488 −$478 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $915 −$119 -13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $390 +$212 +54%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $299 +$479 +160%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $459 −$150 -33%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,288 +$22 +2%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $240 +$397 +165%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $195 −$191 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $342 +$405 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $150 1h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 60¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $100 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $100 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $79 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $79 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $63 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $23 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 29¢ $286 3d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $146 3d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 25¢ $286 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 36¢ $287 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $414 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $186 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 34¢ $186 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $108 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $72 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $181 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 41¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 22¢ $56 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports $55 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $273 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 20¢ $268 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 17¢ $183 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 41¢ $305 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $405 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $1.44 (match) · 73 history records