Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8420…45de sports 193 markets active 7h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+13%) realized +$99 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%99W / 89L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$35
14 days+$48
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$41
other 22% +$57
crypto 1% −$5
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +18.2% +6.9% 60% 56% +5.4%
≤30d 183 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 51% -4.4%
≤90d 186 +3.5% -6.3% 53% 51% +3.1%
all 188 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 51% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 51% +2.7%
10% -15.7% 51% -7.1%
15% -23.9% 51% -16.1%
20% -31.3% 48% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses99 / 89
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)188 / 193
History coverage141d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$3 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$5 +510%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $6 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$3 +52%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 +$3 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 $0 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $4 −$3 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3 +$3 +89%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +66%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 +$3 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$3 -58%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$4 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +45%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +66%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 +$2 +72%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 +$3 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +107%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $7 +$5 +69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -58%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 +$21 +171%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $6 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 61¢ $4 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 11h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $6 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $4 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 15h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $6 16h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $3 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 34h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $4 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 88¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $6 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $5 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 52¢ $3 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 43h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $3 44h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.61 · official $16.61 (match) · 350 history records