Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x8423…5489 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$235 (-10%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$227
sports 44% −$755
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.5% -26.2% 60% 40% -49.3%
≤30d 5 -18.5% -26.2% 60% 40% -49.3%
≤90d 5 -18.5% -26.2% 60% 40% -49.3%
all 5 -18.5% -26.2% 60% 40% -49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 40% -49.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 20% -54.2%
15% -39.7% 20% -58.6%
20% -45.6% 20% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$603 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $458 −$450 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $483 +$106 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $205 +$107 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$9 +9%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $995 −$755 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 20¢ $239 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 81¢ $995 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records