Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x8423…6ce0 other 17 markets active 4d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$965 (+69%) realized +$965 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$424
14 days+$675
30 days+$675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$517
other 32% +$424
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 2 +109.5% +89.6% 100% 100% +88.4%
≤90d 12 +23.7% +11.9% 92% 33% +54.2%
all 17 +16.8% +5.7% 94% 24% +51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 24% +51.2%
10% -4.4% 24% +36.7%
15% -13.7% 18% +23.5%
20% -22.1% 18% +11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$107 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.83 per $1 lost it wins $9.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage169d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $403 +$424 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $221 +$251 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $109 −$107 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 20 $216 +$282 +130%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 24 $310 +$90 +29%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Apr 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of January 5 above $600? Jan 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $403 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $37 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $183 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $109 32d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 28¢ $28 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 73¢ $74 58d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 28¢ $114 58d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $310 64d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $13 87d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 95d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 102d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 109d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 114d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $12 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $11 134d
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 BUY No 99¢ $9 141d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 152d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 159d
Will Meta (META) finish week of January 5 above $600? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 164d
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records