Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x8427…25a5 world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$828 (+5%) realized +$831 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate65%49W / 26L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$132
30 days+$812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$878
other 25% −$81
tech 2% +$37
politics 1% −$20
sports 1% +$4
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 25% -1.9%
≤90d 44 -3.8% -12.9% 64% 18% -5.2%
all 75 -0.8% -10.2% 65% 19% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 19% -5.3%
10% -18.8% 11% -14.4%
15% -26.6% 4% -22.7%
20% -33.8% 1% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$831
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses49 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage224d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 92¢ 90¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $300 +$17 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$20 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,002 +$150 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $690 +$152 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,200 −$206 -9%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,100 +$97 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 02 $12 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,610 +$481 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,504 +$113 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,460 +$55 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? May 22 $22 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 22 $132 −$8 -6%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,282 −$57 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $22 −$10 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1,300 +$33 +3%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 14 $23 −$6 -26%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 14 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Astralis win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $1,300 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 08 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? May 08 $22 +$1 +7%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 08 $22 +$1 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $25 +$9 +35%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Apr 28 $12 −$2 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $14 $0 -0%
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $16 $0 +3%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 21 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31? Apr 04 $16 $0 +3%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 29 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23? Mar 29 $21 +$1 +3%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14? Mar 23 $17 +$4 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 23 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 12 $5 +$2 +37%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 08 $6 +$2 +37%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by February 28, 2026 Mar 08 $18 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 1h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 93¢ $23 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 92¢ $120 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $300 9d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $200 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $690 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,002 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,994 10d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $6 15d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $7 15d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,200 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,197 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $13 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,100 22d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL Yes 99¢ $11 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,610 27d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 90¢ $10 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,504 32d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $12 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,460 33d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $52 33d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL No 100¢ $22 33d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 91¢ $124 33d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,224 33d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 99¢ $37 33d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,282 35d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,279 35d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 36d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.48 · official $157.48 (match) · 274 history records