Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8428…58c6 crypto 1808 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$55 (+2%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate87%1594W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$50
14 days−$53
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 468 -5.4% -14.4% 84% 39% -14.7%
≤30d 992 -3.4% -12.6% 85% 50% -12.4%
≤90d 1831 -2.2% -11.5% 87% 40% -11.2%
all 1831 -2.2% -11.5% 87% 40% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 40% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 2% -19.7%
15% -27.7% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1594 / 237
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1831 / 1808
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1831 Trades
no open positions (220 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records