Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x842a…a742 sports 278 markets active 2h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,375 (-7%) realized −$1,370 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%129W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$137
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,808
other 19% +$282
crypto 3% +$328
tech 2% +$22
politics 1% −$150
world 1% −$88
economics 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +24.6% +12.7% 67% 50% +11.1%
≤30d 6 +24.6% +12.7% 67% 50% +11.1%
≤90d 8 +24.0% +12.2% 75% 62% +10.8%
all 277 -16.1% -24.1% 47% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 41% -14.1%
10% -31.4% 33% -22.3%
15% -38.0% 27% -29.8%
20% -44.1% 21% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$38 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,370
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses129 / 148
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)277 / 278
History coverage512d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $200 +$128 +64%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $36 +$23 +65%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $54 −$21 -38%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $192 −$7 -3%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 18 $600 +$150 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $663 +$132 +20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $119 −$80 -67%
AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will MOUZ win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 07 $48 −$36 -75%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 06 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 06 $40 −$20 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $100 +$245 +245%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $70 +$20 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $39 +$32 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $107 −$107 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $187 −$20 -11%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Krakow 2026? Feb 01 $47 +$36 +77%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 01 $18 +$11 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $269 −$269 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Feb 01 $248 +$21 +9%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $261 +$29 +11%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 01 $63 −$10 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Feb 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $202 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $290 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Jan 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $15 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jan 31 $75 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $11 +$9 +84%
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? Jan 31 $128 +$248 +194%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $11 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $14 −$12 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $240 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 2h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $72 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $32 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $50 20h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 21h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 60¢ $59 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 36¢ $36 25h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $49 35h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 44h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 44h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 45h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 45h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 45h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 45h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 45h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 46h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 46h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 46h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 46h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 46h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 46h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.00 · official $45.00 (match) · 1033 history records