Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x842a…7422 sports 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (206 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82,367 (-19%) realized −$81,998 · open −$369
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%180W / 198L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,087per market
Trades / day206.4pace
Fees−$4,615est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$9,629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,426
7 days−$14,686
14 days−$66,020
30 days−$81,677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$76,619
other 19% −$7,165
crypto 0% +$1,846
world 0% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (206 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 46% -18.2%
≤30d 378 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 46% -27.1%
≤90d 378 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 46% -27.1%
all 378 -10.1% -18.6% 48% 46% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 46% -27.1%
10% -26.4% 41% -34.1%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 35% -40.4%
20% -40.0% 32% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$771) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$711 vs −$1,059 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$9,629
Realized−$81,998
Unrealized−$369
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses180 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$4,615
Open positions14
Markets (closed)378 / 391
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$1,087
Trades / day206.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 55¢ $2,163 $2,742 +$579 (+27%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 71¢ 81¢ $2,000 $2,295 +$295 (+15%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 46¢ $2,817 $2,289 −$528 (-19%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? No 88¢ 78¢ $815 $718 −$97 (-12%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 50¢ $570 $576 +$6 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 40¢ $338 $342 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? No 89¢ 90¢ $318 $323 +$5 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 78¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 91¢ 92¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? No 85¢ 64¢ $64 $48 −$16 (-25%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Boston Red Sox 27¢ 28¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+6%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? No 86¢ 82¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 47¢ 22¢ $46 $22 −$24 (-52%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 +$15 +25%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,093 +$200 +18%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $23 +$3 +12%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 18 $92 +$275 +300%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $32 +$8 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $479 −$473 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $159 +$68 +43%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $22 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $796 +$98 +12%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,003 +$2,003 +100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $173 +$124 +72%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,233 −$1,838 -82%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $8 +$9 +108%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $300 −$43 -14%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $148 +$47 +32%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $149 −$107 -72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $164 +$176 +107%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $63 +$35 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,000 +$3,465 +173%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 +$24 +11%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $445 −$445 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $517 −$510 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,581 −$1,581 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $413 +$488 +118%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $241 +$222 +92%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $240 −$64 -27%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $81 +$9 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $935 +$898 +96%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $542 +$669 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +163%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $32 +$41 +127%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $32 +$12 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,423 +$440 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $299 +$311 +104%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $654 +$174 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $1 18m
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $129 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $342 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 86¢ $11 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2,000 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 86¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 85¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 85¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 85¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 86¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 85¢ $14 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $80 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,628.86 · official $9,629.16 (match) · 3500 history records