Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x842c…6674 sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,421 (+13%) realized +$16,428 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate73%69W / 25L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,318per market
Trades / day80.2pace
Fees−$1,798est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,179
7 days+$9,807
14 days+$12,315
30 days+$12,315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,313
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +7.8% -2.4% 70% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 94 +7.7% -2.5% 73% 50% +1.2%
≤90d 94 +7.7% -2.5% 73% 50% +1.2%
all 94 +7.7% -2.5% 73% 50% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 50% +1.2%
10% -11.9% 28% -8.5%
15% ← realistic here -20.4% 16% -17.3%
20% -28.2% 12% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,502) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$231 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$769
Realized+$16,428
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses69 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,798
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,318
Trades / day80.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $576 $570 −$6 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $13,948 +$1,621 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $925 +$1,478 +160%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $3,355 +$430 +13%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,785 +$725 +41%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3,147 −$338 -11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $709 +$562 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,764 +$150 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,589 −$184 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,323 +$735 +56%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,808 −$3 -0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,265 −$606 -27%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,785 +$585 +33%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1,425 +$410 +29%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $702 +$148 +21%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,359 −$47 -3%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $351 +$20 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $351 +$31 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $350 +$10 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $351 +$28 +8%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $968 +$48 +5%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $351 +$42 +12%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $412 +$64 +16%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,065 +$96 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,466 +$50 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2,167 +$631 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,502 +$119 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,098 +$1,681 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $661 +$267 +40%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $589 +$304 +52%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,082 +$161 +15%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $575 +$356 +62%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $1,714 +$62 +4%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $1,853 −$497 -27%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $780 +$320 +41%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,147 −$51 -4%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $783 +$91 +12%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $675 +$340 +50%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,044 −$140 -13%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,001 −$224 -11%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,214 +$26 +2%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $447 +$47 +10%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,924 −$243 -13%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,248 +$44 +2%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $769 +$217 +28%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $869 +$167 +19%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,168 +$100 +9%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $403 +$140 +35%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,547 −$549 -36%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $717 +$196 +27%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,105 −$271 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $487 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $202 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $15,569 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $82 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $56 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $23 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $564 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $1,175 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $374 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $157 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $160 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $78 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $1,752 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $60 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $1,900 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $487 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $48 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $3,110 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $190 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $95 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $40 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $12 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $119 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $12 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $34 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $19 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $12 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 91¢ $1,548 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $1,146 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $768.65 · official $768.65 (match) · 758 history records