Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x842e…074c sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 513d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$659 (-13%) realized −$817 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$230
14 days+$230
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$484
economics 19% −$82
world 11% +$405
politics 8% −$43
other 6% −$254
crypto 3% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.3% -4.7% 33% 33% +102.3%
≤30d 3 +5.3% -4.7% 33% 33% +102.3%
≤90d 7 -54.9% -59.2% 14% 14% -12.4%
all 53 -31.3% -37.8% 28% 25% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 25% -21.9%
10% -43.8% 25% -29.4%
15% -49.2% 25% -36.2%
20% -54.2% 23% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$55 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

513d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized−$817
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage513d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 74¢ $200 $345 +$145 (+73%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 38¢ 57¢ $25 $38 +$13 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $132 +$285 +216%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Apr 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Titouan Droguet Apr 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $349 +$286 +82%
Open Sud de France: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Gea Feb 06 $34 +$54 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $26 +$68 +263%
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5) Jan 30 $116 +$76 +65%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $249 −$249 -100%
Wimbledon: Rinderknech vs. Zverev Jan 30 $26 −$26 -100%
ATP Cincinnati - Zverev vs. Alcaraz Jan 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) Nov 29 $241 −$240 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before Jul Jul 01 $102 −$102 -100%
Terra Wortmann: Medvedev vs. Zverev Jun 22 $200 −$24 -12%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Spirit vs. MOUZ Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: The MongolZ vs. G2 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Legacy vs. MOUZ Jun 15 $25 −$6 -22%
Boss Open: Zverev vs. Fritz Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Boss Open: Zverev vs. Shelton Jun 14 $43 +$28 +64%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: paiN vs. Nemiga Jun 13 $43 +$51 +119%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Aurora vs. G2 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Boss Open: Shelton vs. Lehecka Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: The MongolZ vs. FURIA Jun 12 $50 +$46 +92%
BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: FURIA vs. B8 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: paiN vs. Virtus.pro Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jun 08 $135 +$175 +130%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $100 −$66 -66%
BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: paiN vs. Nemiga Jun 07 $120 +$106 +89%
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic Jun 07 $310 −$310 -100%
French Open: Tiafoe vs. Altmaier Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Goff vs. Ko Jun 01 $31 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? May 28 $51 +$4 +8%
Knicks vs. Pacers May 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? May 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during events with South May 21 $23 +$9 +39%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $241 +$3 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner May 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 18 $100 +$164 +164%
Spain power outage caused by hack? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US recession in 2025? Apr 29 $954 −$82 -9%
NBA Playoffs: Lakers vs. Timberwolves (To Advance) Apr 28 $17 −$9 -54%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July? Apr 23 $150 −$46 -30%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-16? Apr 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Apr 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Australian Open Final (M): Sinner vs. Zverev Feb 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $122 51m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $25 51m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 51¢ $19 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $36 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $132 23h
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 33¢ $118 65d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $635 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 55¢ $349 112d
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Titouan Droguet BUY Griekspoor 32¢ $18 133d
Open Sud de France: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Gea BUY Mannarino 39¢ $34 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 134d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Djokovic 27¢ $68 139d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 67¢ $189 141d
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5) BUY Zverev 60¢ $116 141d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 16¢ $60 141d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) SELL Liquid 0¢ $0 202d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) BUY Liquid 54¢ $241 202d
ATP Cincinnati - Zverev vs. Alcaraz BUY Zverev 38¢ $51 307d
Wimbledon: Rinderknech vs. Zverev BUY Zverev 52¢ $26 354d
Terra Wortmann: Medvedev vs. Zverev BUY Medvedev 85¢ $150 364d
Terra Wortmann: Medvedev vs. Zverev BUY Zverev 29¢ $50 364d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Spirit vs. MOUZ BUY Spirit 59¢ $75 365d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: The MongolZ vs. G2 BUY G2 33¢ $20 369d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Legacy vs. MOUZ SELL MOUZ 28¢ $19 370d
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Legacy vs. MOUZ BUY MOUZ 36¢ $25 370d
Boss Open: Zverev vs. Fritz BUY Zverev 52¢ $20 370d
Boss Open: Zverev vs. Shelton BUY Zverev 61¢ $43 371d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.46 · official $382.46 (match) · 154 history records