Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8430…3961
sports · 420 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$16,753 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,773 · open +$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$466
Realized−$16,773
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses267 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2,542
Open positions3
Markets (closed)417 / 420
History coverage35d
Avg bet$738
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 417 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,054
7 days−$4,698
14 days−$15,049
30 days−$20,613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? No 90¢ 92¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 61¢ 94¢ $90 $139 +$49 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 96¢ $116 $120 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $880 −$248 -28%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO1) - The International Europe Open Qu Jun 12 $741 +$299 +40%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $240 +$12 +5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $500 +$16 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $630 +$2 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $908 −$70 -8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $794 −$447 -56%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $503 +$144 +29%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $2,594 −$2,455 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $120 +$161 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $300 +$14 +5%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $448 +$47 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,007 +$282 +28%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $868 +$83 +10%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $4,971 −$1,687 -34%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 11 $728 −$204 -28%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $122 +$212 +174%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $710 +$122 +17%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $929 −$132 -14%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $411 +$29 +7%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $881 +$235 +27%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Dino (BO1) - Asia Masters Group Jun 10 $221 +$15 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 10 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,032 −$949 -92%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,318 −$1,011 -77%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $223 +$21 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $637 +$153 +24%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $200 +$5 +3%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $300 +$5 +2%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster Academy vs Top Esports Challenger (BO1) - Asia Jun 08 $1,001 +$28 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -31%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $847 −$372 -44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $501 +$53 +11%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $753 +$108 +14%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,212 +$142 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $682 +$9 +1%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $392 +$47 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,126 +$944 +44%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,138 +$157 +14%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,009 +$420 +42%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $604 +$167 +28%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,506 −$669 -44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $541 −$10 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $302 +$74 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$16,775
crypto 0% +$2
weather 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $100 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $10 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $164 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $501 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $15 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $100 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $101 11h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 12¢ $10 12h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 17¢ $10 12h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 17¢ $10 12h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 17¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $63 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $101 12h
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO1) - The International Europe Open Qu BUY Inner Circle 96¢ $10 13h
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO1) - The International Europe Open Qu BUY Inner Circle 96¢ $20 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.7% -15.6% 63% 38% -21.1%
≤30d 342 -12.3% -20.7% 62% 36% -16.7%
≤90d 417 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 37% -14.4%
all 417 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 37% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 37% -14.4%
10% -25.2% 19% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -32.4% 11% -30.1%
20% -39.0% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.55 · official $465.55 (match) · 3500 history records