Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x8431…4cc8 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$187 (+9%) realized +$64 · open +$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days+$35
14 days−$160
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$20
other 39% +$193
crypto 2% −$32
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 29% 29% -5.9%
≤30d 50 -2.7% -12.0% 32% 30% -10.1%
≤90d 52 +2.0% -7.8% 35% 33% -6.0%
all 52 +2.0% -7.8% 35% 33% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 33% -6.0%
10% -16.6% 33% -15.0%
15% -24.6% 33% -23.2%
20% -32.0% 27% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$19 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions9
Markets (closed)52 / 61
History coverage33d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $230 $252 +$22 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 45¢ 100¢ $70 $155 +$85 (+122%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+46%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 45¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$90 -88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$23 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 −$16 -46%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $23 −$7 -29%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $162 +$75 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$28 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$20 +980%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 +$23 +75%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $122 +$73 +60%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$89 +109%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $102 −$43 -42%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $20 +$35 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $47 +$93 +199%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 31 $30 +$13 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$65 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $51 +$44 +86%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $61 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $76 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 69¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 18¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 15¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 53¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 54¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $51 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $20 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $21 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $9 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 34¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $225 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $572.74 · official $571.57 (match) · 162 history records