Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8431…350e other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$18
other 22% −$4
sports 22% −$13
crypto 9% +$1
world 6% −$3
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$2
tech 4% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 55 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 143 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage160d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $49 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $863 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $179 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $184 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $231 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 08 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $310 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $520 −$5 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $250 −$4 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $538 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 30 $122 +$2 +2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $440 −$3 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $120 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $128 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $416 −$2 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $129 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $271 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $306 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 23 $130 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $54 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $6 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL No 97¢ $57 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 97¢ $57 13d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $47 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $48 26d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $49 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $58 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $58 66d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 66d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 66d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 66d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 66d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $36 66d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $36 66d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $51 66d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $51 67d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 67d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 67d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $49 67d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $49 67d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $65 67d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $65 67d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $52 67d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $52 68d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $57 68d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $57 68d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 663 history records