trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 100% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 100% | 0% | -6.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +3.2% | -6.7% | 100% | 0% | -6.5% |
| all | 24 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 96% | 4% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 4% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Matt Freese win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? | Jun 16 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? | Jun 16 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May | Jun 16 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on April 22? | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? | May 28 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 28 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? | Apr 21 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 21 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Apr 21 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? | Mar 19 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 20 | Mar 19 | $3 | $0 | +16% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 5 above $155? | Feb 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 18 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? | Feb 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? | Jan 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will no CEO be announced in 2025? | Jan 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on | Dec 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 12? | Nov 12 | $8,537 | +$34 | +0% |
| Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 12? | Nov 12 | $1,582 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 20? | Nov 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? | Nov 11 | $1 | $0 | +3% |