Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8436…5b91 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% $0
world 24% $0
crypto 13% +$1
politics 9% +$7
sports 7% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% +$1
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 37 +1.0% -8.6% 30% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.07 per $1 lost it wins $6.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage289d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $15 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $10 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $19 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $19 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on Septembe Sep 15 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $14 +$7 +47%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $28 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $17 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $45 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $20 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $41 17h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $45 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $42 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $42 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $42 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $42 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $42 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $42 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records