Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8437…67c3 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+5%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$6
other 28% −$1
politics 13% +$49
sports 10% $0
culture 9% −$7
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -1.8% -11.2% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 0% -10.8%
all 27 +69.7% +53.6% 41% 4% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.6% 4% -8.3%
10% +38.9% 4% -17.1%
15% +25.4% 4% -25.1%
20% +13.1% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +146% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage475d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $13 −$1 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $32 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $38 −$5 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $55 $0 +0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 23 $63 −$7 -11%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 21? Mar 22 $1 +$49 +4248%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $14 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $11 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $22 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $32 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $27 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $27 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $36 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $36 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records