Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8438…3680 crypto 752 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,678 (-13%) realized −$1,678 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate60%468W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day195.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,020
7 days−$995
14 days−$1,106
30 days−$1,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -12.1% -20.5% 58% 39% -26.6%
≤30d 785 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 37% -17.1%
≤90d 785 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 37% -17.1%
all 785 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 37% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover195.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 37% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 22% -25.0%
15% -29.0% 14% -32.3%
20% -36.0% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,678
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses468 / 317
Open positions0
Markets (closed)785 / 752
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day195.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 785 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $352 −$352 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$19 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$34 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$32 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$9 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $22 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $14 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records