Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
84 0x843b…41f4 sports 8 markets active 4d ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$439 (-42%) realized −$439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$232
14 days−$232
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$232
crypto 19% −$194
other 2% −$22
tech 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -35.7%
≤30d 4 -29.9% -36.6% 25% 25% -37.4%
≤90d 8 -36.6% -42.6% 25% 25% -47.8%
all 8 -36.6% -42.6% 25% 25% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 25% -47.8%
10% -48.1% 25% -52.8%
15% -53.1% 25% -57.4%
20% -57.7% 25% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$136 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage61d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 +$368 +180%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $23 −$22 -98%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 17 $90 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 17 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $507 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $204 5d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $102 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $23 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $90 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $100 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 65d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 17? BUY Up 43¢ $10 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records