Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x843c…2c05 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+8%) realized +$128 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%27W / 16L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$147
14 days+$147
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$13
sports 35% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +20.2% +8.8% 75% 75% +11.9%
≤30d 20 +20.2% +8.8% 75% 75% +11.9%
≤90d 28 +10.5% +0.0% 68% 68% +11.9%
all 43 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 63% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 63% -1.8%
10% -16.7% 60% -11.2%
15% -24.7% 51% -19.7%
20% -32.1% 35% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$27 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses27 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage588d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 32¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 3+ shots Jun 23 $50 +$12 +24%
Harry Kane: 5+ shots Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots Jun 23 $30 +$31 +101%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots Jun 23 $60 +$20 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $41 +$30 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $40 +$7 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 +$10 +67%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $49 +$24 +48%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots Jun 22 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$13 +65%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$18 +90%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$9 -87%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Vikings vs. Steelers May 17 $25 +$31 +122%
Eagles vs. Buccaneers May 17 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Jaguars vs. 49ers Sep 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Rams vs. Eagles Sep 26 $50 +$27 +54%
Steelers vs. Patriots Sep 26 $50 +$46 +92%
Cowboys vs. Bears Sep 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Ravens vs. Chargers Nov 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Broncos vs. Raiders Nov 25 $40 +$17 +43%
Vikings vs. Bears Nov 25 $20 +$12 +61%
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Nov 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23? Nov 24 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? Nov 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? Nov 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Nov 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $60 +$42 +70%
Commanders vs. Eagles Nov 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 26¢ $20 1h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $41 1h
Harry Kane: 5+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Harry Kane: 4+ shots BUY Yes 69¢ $30 2d
Harry Kane: 3+ shots BUY Yes 80¢ $50 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 85¢ $40 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $41 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots BUY Yes 75¢ $60 2d
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots BUY Yes 76¢ $40 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $49 3d
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4d
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots BUY Yes 80¢ $20 4d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $31 4d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 39d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes $1 39d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 39d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 39d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 39d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 39d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.90 · official $64.95 · 76 history records