Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x843d…fb93 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,208 (-21%) realized −$1,208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$767
7 days−$1,294
14 days−$1,333
30 days−$1,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$917
other 15% −$374
politics 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -53.8% -58.2% 9% 9% -41.7%
≤30d 13 -45.6% -50.8% 15% 8% -35.2%
≤90d 38 -24.9% -32.1% 34% 16% -30.4%
all 38 -24.9% -32.1% 34% 16% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 16% -30.4%
10% -38.6% 5% -37.1%
15% -44.5% 3% -43.2%
20% -50.0% 0% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$58 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage57d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 17 $1,013 −$62 -6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 17 $52 −$48 -92%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 17 $487 −$330 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $1,042 −$328 -32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $29 −$4 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $217 −$188 -86%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $368 −$224 -61%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $86 −$78 -91%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $251 +$33 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $70 −$50 -72%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 08 $1,035 −$39 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 17 $111 +$4 +4%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $68 −$10 -15%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 12 $1 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 11 $198 +$51 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 11 $25 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 11 $53 +$21 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $53 +$8 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $28 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 09 $53 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 09 $41 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 09 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $41 +$6 +14%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 06 $50 −$30 -60%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 06 $50 −$16 -32%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 27 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 25 $32 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $7 −$5 -78%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $7 −$2 -35%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? Apr 23 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 23 $16 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $39 +$7 +18%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? Apr 21 $3 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $184 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $26 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $29 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $406 5d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $144 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $254 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $56 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $40 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $87 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $217 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $86 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $109 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 6d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $52 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $108 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $108 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $36 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records