Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x843e…e477 sports 337 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$345 (+3%) realized +$368 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%190W / 145L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days−$308
14 days−$101
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$1,071
other 31% −$747
crypto 5% +$373
politics 1% +$6
world 0% −$67
culture 0% +$3
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -21.0% -28.5% 48% 48% -27.4%
≤30d 116 +3.4% -6.4% 53% 52% -9.2%
≤90d 335 +11.1% +0.5% 57% 56% -5.2%
all 335 +11.1% +0.5% 57% 56% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 56% -5.2%
10% -9.1% 51% -14.3%
15% -17.9% 45% -22.6%
20% -25.9% 36% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$40 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$368
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses190 / 145
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions2
Markets (closed)335 / 337
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 40¢ $66 $43 −$22 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 +$29 +47%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 20 $205 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $56 +$69 +124%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 +$17 +32%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $60 +$25 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $67 +$65 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$17 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $64 +$25 +40%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $87 +$112 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 +$25 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 +$64 +124%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $65 +$38 +58%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $66 +$79 +119%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$11 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $67 +$18 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $66 +$26 +40%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $65 +$28 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $65 +$84 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $69 +$34 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $66 +$27 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 +$52 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $62 +$14 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $64 +$54 +84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 12 $51 +$7 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $56 +$93 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$23 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $70 +$47 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $56 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $61 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $0 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 82¢ $77 32h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $56 41h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 70¢ $60 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 70¢ $68 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $92 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $67 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $67 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $67 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $74 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $7 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $4 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $23 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $23 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $5 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $5 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $2 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $87 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $85 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 78¢ $67 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $69 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $67 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $70 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $67 7d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $67 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $67 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.49 · official $98.49 (match) · 3500 history records