Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8441…7925 crypto 709 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,259 (-4%) realized −$1,259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%441W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$57
14 days+$532
30 days+$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$511
sports 21% −$742
other 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 32% -8.7%
≤30d 471 +2.5% -7.2% 72% 27% -7.5%
≤90d 710 -3.0% -12.2% 62% 30% -10.2%
all 710 -3.0% -12.2% 62% 30% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 30% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 23% -18.8%
15% -28.3% 20% -26.7%
20% -35.3% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses441 / 269
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)710 / 709
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 710 Trades
no open positions (125 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $142 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $140 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $140 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $142 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $132 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $133 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $134 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $139 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$39 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $141 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $87 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $140 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $117 −$116 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $85 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $120 +$23 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$18 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $127 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$115 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $117 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $69 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $71 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $70 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $70 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $70 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $71 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $71 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $71 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $71 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $66 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $66 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $29 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $37 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $32 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $69 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $70 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records