Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x8441…422f sports 851 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,086 (+0%) realized +$1,085 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%830W / 17L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$748per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$394
14 days+$439
30 days+$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$175
weather 21% +$219
other 18% +$133
finance 2% +$17
crypto 2% +$12
tech 2% +$13
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 2% -8.8%
≤30d 255 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 847 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 847 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$39 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$2,836
Realized+$1,085
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses830 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)847 / 851
History coverage64d
Avg bet$748
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 847 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner GamerLegion 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season Fuego 100¢ 100¢ $814 $815 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Fuego 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $972 +$1 +0%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $203 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $364 $0 +0%
Valorant: Team Solid vs TBK Esports (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 26 $16 $0 +0%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $127 $0 +0%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $362 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $389 $0 +0%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $455 $0 +0%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $998 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 25 $122 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 25 $701 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $117 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $80 $0 +0%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $390 $0 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs Leviatán Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $317 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $200 $0 +0%
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $215 $0 +0%
Valorant: OXEN vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $49 $0 +0%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $473 $0 +0%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $411 $0 +0%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $331 $0 +0%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $72 $0 +0%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $875 +$125 +14%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $797 +$203 +26%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $249 $0 +0%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $126 $0 +0%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: TBK Esports vs F4TALITY - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Valorant: la Masia vs INTZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $70 $0 +0%
Valorant: la Masia vs INTZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $69 $0 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $854 +$1 +0%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $999 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 100¢ $238 43m
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 100¢ $368 56m
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner BUY GamerLegion 100¢ $393 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seaso BUY Fuego 100¢ $5 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 100¢ $194 1h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY YFT Esports 100¢ $203 1h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR fe 100¢ $708 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seaso BUY Fuego 100¢ $31 1h
Valorant: Team Solid vs TBK Esports (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In BUY Team Solid 100¢ $16 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seaso BUY Fuego 100¢ $68 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR fe 100¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR fe 100¢ $224 2h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seaso BUY Fuego 100¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seaso BUY Fuego 100¢ $641 2h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seaso BUY Fuego 100¢ $65 2h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 100¢ $7 2h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $41 3h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 100¢ $12 3h
Valorant: Fuego vs LYON - Map 1 Winner BUY Fuego 100¢ $4 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $83 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $79 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $100 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 100¢ $100 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $10 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $12 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $449 3h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $217 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 100¢ $24 3h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 100¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,836.24 · official $2,836.24 (match) · 2712 history records