Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
84 0x8442…9df5 sports 559 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,227 (-3%) realized −$5,226 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate80%442W / 113L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$325
14 days−$78
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$5,119
other 20% −$94
culture 7% +$59
world 3% +$14
politics 2% −$28
economics 1% +$114
tech 1% +$39
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 21% -15.8%
≤30d 152 +2.1% -7.6% 79% 30% -8.8%
≤90d 256 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 27% -8.1%
all 555 +6.6% -3.5% 80% 23% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 23% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 14% -20.7%
15% -21.2% 7% -28.4%
20% -28.9% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$107 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$5,226
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses442 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)555 / 559
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$291
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $797 −$230 -29%
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? Jun 19 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 19 $25 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $57 −$1 -2%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $288 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $523 −$86 -16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $19 +$6 +32%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $84 −$18 -22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $75 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $148 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $40 +$10 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $188 +$8 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $210 +$5 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 +$5 +43%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $131 +$21 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$18 -88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $56 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $78 +$4 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $159 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $80 +$15 +19%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $134 +$10 +7%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$7 -48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $227 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$2 -3%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 13 $111 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $64 +$6 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $63 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $51 56m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $521 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $311 1h
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 87¢ $25 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $56 1h
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $207 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 9¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 84¢ $415 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $419 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $151 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 82¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 94¢ $13 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 93¢ $160 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 8¢ $13 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 15¢ $6 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 92¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 92¢ $9 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 92¢ $12 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 91¢ $68 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 91¢ $13 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 92¢ $12 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 92¢ $11 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $19 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $14 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.75 · official $48.75 (match) · 3500 history records