Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8444…4500 sports 51 markets active 11h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$28
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$24
other 34% +$60
crypto 3% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 51% -7.0%
≤30d 51 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 47% -6.9%
≤90d 51 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 47% -6.9%
all 51 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 47% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 47% -6.9%
10% -21.6% 43% -15.8%
15% -29.2% 33% -24.0%
20% -36.1% 27% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage10d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $39 +$10 +27%
Samsonova vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $20 −$1 -7%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5) Jun 23 $8 +$12 +149%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $20 $0 -1%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$24 +156%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$8 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +54%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $28 +$22 +80%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $10 +$17 +162%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $119 +$31 +26%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$21 -67%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $24 +$16 +66%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$34 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +59%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $27 +$3 +12%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$37 +73%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$27 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $21 +$16 +78%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 −$24 -55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$2 -33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$26 +37%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 11h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 87¢ $45 11h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $30 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England $0 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $29 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 80¢ $49 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $39 19h
Samsonova vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 48¢ $19 21h
Samsonova vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 21h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5) SELL Osaka 99¢ $20 21h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5) BUY Osaka 39¢ $8 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens SELL Naomi Osaka 54¢ $20 22h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 86¢ $18 22h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 48¢ $10 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 53¢ $20 23h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 34h
Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $4 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 40h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez SELL Juan Bautista Torres 94¢ $20 40h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 70¢ $15 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 42h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $18 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $38 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records