Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8445…9309
other · 102 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$86 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$86 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$205
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage464d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$37
14 days+$20
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $205 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $338 +$4 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $178 +$5 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $214 +$19 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $194 +$10 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $176 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $156 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $183 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $455 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$2 -27%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $177 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $194 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $30 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $541 −$15 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $187 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $170 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $259 +$12 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $345 +$4 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $179 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $5 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $163 +$14 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $14 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $153 +$9 +6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $505 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $33 +$4 +13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $987 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $989 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $974 +$17 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $974 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $8 +$1 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $8 $0 +2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$1
world 41% +$62
sports 11% +$21
finance 2% $0
politics 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $161 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $127 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $74 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $95 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $17 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $90 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $38 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $79 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $68 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $17 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $167 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $146 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $185 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $204 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $194 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $121 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $50 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $154 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 27 +1.1% -8.6% 56% 4% -8.3%
≤90d 33 +1.3% -8.3% 55% 6% -8.7%
all 101 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.59 · official $204.59 (match) · 362 history records