Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8446…8990 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 37% −$17
sports 7% +$87
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 +0.7% -8.9% 6% 3% -9.6%
all 115 +1.5% -8.1% 12% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 10% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 7% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×9.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage119d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $708 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $340 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $295 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $319 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 12 $350 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $307 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $289 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $337 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $383 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $375 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $375 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $319 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $337 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $399 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $308 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $361 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $382 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $348 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $279 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $291 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $397 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $394 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $381 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $344 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 3d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 13d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $63 15d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $63 18d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 20d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 21d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 21d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 27d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $328 33d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $328 33d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $277 33d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $277 36d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $371 36d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $371 36d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $336 36d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $336 38d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $266 38d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $266 39d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $361 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.97 · official $56.97 (match) · 324 history records