Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x844d…49a3 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 29% −$2
other 28% −$22
politics 11% +$9
world 10% +$1
finance 8% +$7
crypto 8% +$15
sports 4% −$2
tech 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -6.1% -15.1% 42% 17% -8.6%
≤90d 34 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 29% -10.3%
all 61 +2.8% -7.0% 72% 30% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 30% -8.5%
10% -15.9% 10% -17.3%
15% -24.0% 7% -25.2%
20% -31.4% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)61 / 78
History coverage132d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 96¢ 88¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 43¢ 31¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 66¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $17 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $13 +$1 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $17 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $17 +$3 +20%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 22 $6 $0 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 16 $17 +$2 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 04 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 04 $14 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 04 $10 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $24 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $14 +$1 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $18 +$2 +12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 26 $14 $0 -3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 26 $37 −$7 -18%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 20 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $65 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $23 +$4 +16%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $36 +$18 +49%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -57%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February? Mar 04 $4 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 04 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 04 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 28 $5 $0 +6%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Feb 28 $4 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026? Feb 16 $10 $0 +2%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $5 +$4 +89%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM? Feb 12 $18 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 92¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $17 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $17 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 22¢ $0 8d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 91¢ $8 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $12 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $13 15d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 15d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 64¢ $8 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $9 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $18 25d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 25d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.27 · official $69.23 · 314 history records