Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x844d…b092
crypto · 39 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$136 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$136 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses28 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage139d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 5 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 23? May 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 3? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 3? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 06 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (W) Apr 02 $2 +$3 +212%
La Salle Explorers vs. Army Black Knights (W) Mar 27 $8 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 21? Mar 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 25 $564 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 24 $3 +$2 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 24 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 24 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 24 $123 +$117 +95%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 24 $5 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 24 $778 +$2 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 24 $178 +$2 +1%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $114 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 24 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 24 $41 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $228 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% +$6
culture 20% −$1
politics 7% +$2
crypto 7% +$121
other 5% $0
sports 4% +$7
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $6 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 98¢ $5 21d
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 21d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 40d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 40d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 40d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 40d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 40d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 66d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 70d
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (W) BUY Notre Dame Fighting Irish 32¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 76d
La Salle Explorers vs. Army Black Knights (W) BUY Army Black Knights 70¢ $4 79d
La Salle Explorers vs. Army Black Knights (W) BUY Army Black Knights 70¢ $4 79d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 83d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 98¢ $5 90d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 98¢ $11 129d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 138d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $563 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 138d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $564 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 19 +14.0% +3.1% 95% 16% -2.8%
all 34 +15.6% +4.6% 82% 21% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 21% -5.2%
10% -5.4% 21% -14.2%
15% -14.5% 21% -22.5%
20% -22.9% 18% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.21 · official $28.21 (match) · 108 history records