Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x844e…0038 world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$1
other 16% −$3
politics 1% −$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 35% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 35% 6% -9.7%
all 30 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 3% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 3% -11.6%
10% -27.8% 0% -20.1%
15% -34.8% 0% -27.8%
20% -41.2% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $19 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $26 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $39 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $8 −$3 -33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 21m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $18 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $13 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $6 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $26 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $30 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $28 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $28 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.38 · official $28.38 (match) · 90 history records