Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
84 0x844e…4efd sports 183 markets active 9d ago coverage 83d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$22,494 (+5%) realized +$22,494 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%102W / 80L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$2,566per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$5,187est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$30,614
crypto 6% −$28,232
other 5% +$4,910
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 53% 53% -25.0%
≤90d 181 +12.6% +1.9% 56% 55% -8.0%
all 182 +12.0% +1.3% 56% 55% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 55% -8.1%
10% -8.4% 53% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -17.2% 51% -24.9%
20% -25.3% 45% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$3,600) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,085 vs −$2,568 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$22,494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses102 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$5,187
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$2,566
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $304 −$299 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $930 −$930 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $428 +$759 +177%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $1,980 −$1,954 -99%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $993 +$943 +95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 May 31 $1,963 −$1,931 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $3,155 −$3,120 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,629 +$371 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,089 +$2,688 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $1,623 +$375 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $948 +$751 +79%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,897 −$2,880 -99%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,651 +$1,044 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $1,010 −$990 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $1,451 +$1,249 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $980 +$661 +67%
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 14 $5,944 −$5,940 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $9,105 −$9,053 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $6,088 −$3,600 -59%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $2,288 +$5,712 +250%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 11 $1,951 +$2,962 +152%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $3,041 +$2,455 +81%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $2,022 +$1,125 +56%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 11 $2,321 +$959 +41%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $2,520 +$901 +36%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $3,040 +$2,312 +76%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $103 +$94 +91%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $592 +$1,387 +234%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $1,306 +$1,650 +126%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $941 −$940 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,040 −$1,020 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 09 $922 +$1,376 +149%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 30 $448 +$339 +76%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Apr 30 $205 +$239 +117%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $1,317 −$1,300 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $1,784 −$1,760 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 29 $2,461 +$1,419 +58%
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 29 $1,581 −$1,567 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 29 $5,189 −$5,189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 29 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 29 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 29 $1,650 +$1,526 +92%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 29 $1,011 −$996 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $139 +$31 +22%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $1,190 +$1,331 +112%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $668 +$688 +103%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Daniel Michalski Apr 27 $34 +$23 +67%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 27 $113 +$97 +86%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $4,321 −$4,274 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 8d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $304 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $408 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $5 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $465 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $7 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $5 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $4 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $1 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $14 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $2 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $7 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $3 15d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $9 15d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Otto Virtanen 99¢ $1,188 15d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 35¢ $428 15d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,980 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,936 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $80 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $32 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $147 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $119 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $120 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 16d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $16 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.20 · official $17.20 (match) · 3500 history records