Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x844f…e978 other 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$168 (-2%) realized −$152 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate74%205W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$32
14 days−$5
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$152
world 26% −$29
politics 15% +$26
tech 12% +$15
sports 8% −$30
finance 3% +$2
economics 1% −$16
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +58.5% +43.4% 100% 50% +3.4%
≤30d 29 +14.6% +3.7% 86% 38% -7.3%
≤90d 123 -4.5% -13.6% 73% 29% -15.2%
all 277 -2.6% -11.9% 74% 29% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 29% -11.1%
10% -20.3% 13% -19.6%
15% -28.0% 5% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses205 / 72
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)277 / 288
History coverage368d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance Argentina 96¢ 94¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance England 91¢ 90¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance France 90¢ 87¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance Spain 88¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance Croatia 33¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 Over 41¢ 15¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde win on Jun 27 $3 +$8 +260%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $60 +$2 +4%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$39 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $80 −$1 -2%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$7 -14%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $112 +$8 +7%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $20 +$7 +34%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $60 +$6 +10%
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31? Jun 02 $40 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +20%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$4 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$6 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $65 +$4 +6%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$6 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $65 +$3 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $10 +$4 +35%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $80 +$5 +6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $50 +$3 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 24 $150 −$1 -0%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 21 $24 −$24 -98%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $110 +$15 +13%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 08 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $20 +$6 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $91 +$3 +4%
Will either Tate brother be arrested by April 30? May 01 $70 +$5 +7%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 01 $20 +$4 +20%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? May 01 $60 +$5 +9%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $13 +$4 +27%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $110 +$6 +6%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? May 01 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? May 01 $40 +$4 +11%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $70 +$8 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 38m
Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance BUY Spain 88¢ $40 1h
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance BUY England 91¢ $60 1h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance BUY Argentina 96¢ $150 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance BUY Croatia 33¢ $20 1h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 90¢ $50 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde win on BUY 27¢ $3 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $20 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 21¢ $11 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 8d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 15d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 92¢ $79 15d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $43 15d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $30 15d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $60 21d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 97¢ $60 21d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $50 21d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $62 21d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 96¢ $60 21d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $50 21d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $80 21d
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $112 23d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 74¢ $27 25d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $20 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.89 · official $463.89 (match) · 639 history records