Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8450…4c72 crypto 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$39
other 22% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.8% -20.2% 25% 25% -21.2%
≤30d 20 -11.8% -20.2% 25% 25% -21.2%
≤90d 20 -11.8% -20.2% 25% 25% -21.2%
all 20 -11.8% -20.2% 25% 25% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 25% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 20% -28.7%
15% -34.8% 10% -35.6%
20% -41.2% 5% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$9 -30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$6 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$9 -58%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records