Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x8451…9af2 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+7%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days+$11
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$5
sports 6% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -34.7% -40.9% 0% 0% -45.2%
≤30d 9 -7.8% -16.5% 56% 44% -9.1%
≤90d 9 -7.8% -16.5% 56% 44% -9.1%
all 11 -9.1% -17.8% 55% 45% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 45% -9.1%
10% -25.6% 27% -17.8%
15% -32.8% 18% -25.8%
20% -39.4% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage91d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $56 −$37 -66%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $86 +$11 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $221 −$18 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $72 +$32 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 +$22 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 +$11 +28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 43m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $39 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $98 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $86 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $86 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $120 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $117 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $104 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $72 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $71 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $59 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $60 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 14d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $25 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records