Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x8452…cc80 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,644 (-26%) realized −$10,644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days−$3,717
14 days−$3,717
30 days−$5,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$7,277
other 10% −$3,140
politics 7% −$296
crypto 1% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -34.7% -40.9% 17% 17% -40.6%
≤30d 21 -44.0% -49.3% 14% 14% -49.2%
≤90d 26 -42.3% -47.8% 15% 15% -48.2%
all 43 -24.4% -31.6% 26% 23% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 23% -35.5%
10% -38.1% 23% -41.7%
15% -44.1% 21% -47.3%
20% -49.6% 21% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$1,013) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$564 vs −$535 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage234d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $601 −$33 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $399 +$244 +61%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $346 −$335 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $231 +$120 +52%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,246 −$1,227 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,284 −$38 -3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,015 +$983 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,253 −$1,234 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $785 −$38 -5%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $406 −$23 -6%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $406 −$20 -5%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,422 −$615 -43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $405 −$400 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 −$18 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 −$22 -5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $973 −$957 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $850 −$833 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $229 −$4 -2%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 21 $61 +$16 +26%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $612 −$598 -98%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $198 −$198 -100%
Khamenei seen in public by March 2? Feb 28 $163 −$163 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina Feb 11 $5,394 −$3,441 -64%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 18 $2,860 −$263 -9%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Dec 18 $834 +$823 +99%
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) Dec 17 $953 −$953 -100%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flames Dec 17 $549 +$404 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 17 $383 +$744 +194%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Dec 17 $888 +$851 +96%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $924 −$924 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $998 −$221 -22%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 09 $131 −$32 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 09 $1,951 −$1,951 -100%
Open de Moselle: Clement Tabur vs Vitaliy Sachko Nov 06 $307 +$301 +98%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $450 +$26 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $368 −$368 -100%
Spread: Manchester United (-0.5) Nov 01 $1,075 +$1,689 +157%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 01 $6,918 −$1,114 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq 44¢ $568 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $601 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 90¢ $643 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 55¢ $399 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $351 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $1,246 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $1,246 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,284 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $711 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,998 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $302 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $441 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $361 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $812 5d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $383 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $386 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $204 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $405 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records