Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8453…0db2 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11,416 (-46%) realized −$11,757 · open +$341
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$920per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$7,035
other 42% −$5,266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -35.5% -41.6% 38% 31% -59.6%
≤30d 26 -35.5% -41.6% 38% 31% -59.6%
≤90d 26 -35.5% -41.6% 38% 31% -59.6%
all 26 -35.5% -41.6% 38% 31% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.6% 31% -59.6%
10% -47.2% 23% -63.4%
15% ← realistic here -52.3% 19% -67.0%
20% -57.0% 15% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,635) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$1,047 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,063
Realized−$11,757
Unrealized+$341
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$920
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 64¢ $1,722 $2,063 +$341 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $267 +$33 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $2,692 +$740 +28%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $151 −$150 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $986 −$982 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $742 −$736 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $611 −$600 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,660 −$1,635 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $807 +$2,022 +250%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,679 +$1,011 +60%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$126 +62%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$105 +206%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 −$108 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,495 −$2,457 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $203 −$202 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,901 −$2,860 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,826 −$3,780 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,735 −$1,700 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,162 −$1,140 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $732 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1,014 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $164 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $186 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $135 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $33 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $20 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $14 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $14 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 82¢ $2,011 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 89¢ $178 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 89¢ $89 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $15 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 30¢ $4 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $17 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $210 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $240 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $131 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $29 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,063.15 · official $2,063.15 (match) · 117 history records