Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8454…331a other 566 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112,304 (-12%) realized −$107,478 · open −$4,826
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%145W / 320L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,648per market
Trades / day75.9pace
Fees−$591est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$136,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96,381
7 days−$92,961
14 days−$88,707
30 days−$78,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$2,583
world 29% +$24,988
other 17% −$6,771
crypto 7% +$3,094
finance 6% +$255
sports 5% −$8,399
tech 4% −$2,032
culture 1% +$20
weather 0% −$290
economics 0% +$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -37.6% -43.5% 16% 9% -59.9%
≤30d 392 -10.7% -19.2% 29% 15% -21.3%
≤90d 465 -5.0% -14.1% 31% 15% -19.8%
all 465 -5.0% -14.1% 31% 15% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 15% -19.8%
10% -22.3% 12% -27.5%
15% ← realistic here -29.8% 11% -34.5%
20% -36.7% 10% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$961) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$525 vs −$510 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$136,945
Realized−$107,478
Unrealized−$4,826
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses145 / 320
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$591
Open positions215
Markets (closed)465 / 566
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$1,648
Trades / day75.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 215 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $7,500 $11,438 +$3,938 (+52%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9,870 $9,990 +$120 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 52¢ 84¢ $5,507 $8,987 +$3,480 (+63%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $7,199 $8,535 +$1,337 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $6,962 $7,467 +$506 (+7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5,223 $5,389 +$166 (+3%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $4,717 $5,334 +$617 (+13%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $5,433 $5,227 −$206 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 74¢ 93¢ $3,029 $3,789 +$759 (+25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $7,500 $3,562 −$3,938 (-52%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? No 94¢ 86¢ $3,803 $3,509 −$294 (-8%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 73¢ 40¢ $5,463 $2,981 −$2,482 (-45%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $2,460 $2,962 +$502 (+20%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic 83¢ 97¢ $2,490 $2,910 +$420 (+17%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $2,412 $2,875 +$463 (+19%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,543 $2,690 +$147 (+6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $1,713 $2,508 +$795 (+46%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 81¢ 60¢ $2,751 $2,064 −$687 (-25%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,968 $1,957 −$11 (-1%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 81¢ 32¢ $4,862 $1,951 −$2,911 (-60%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,690 $1,864 +$174 (+10%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 93¢ 88¢ $1,860 $1,760 −$100 (-5%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 80¢ $1,234 $1,528 +$294 (+24%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,446 $1,482 +$36 (+2%)
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch No 93¢ 97¢ $1,395 $1,455 +$60 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 19 $2,460 −$2,460 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2,902 −$3,240 -112%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 139.5 Jun 19 $10,528 −$10,528 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 19 $78 −$72 -92%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 19 $2,831 −$2,831 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 163.5 Jun 19 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Will Doja Cat be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Jun 19 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 19 $790 −$790 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 19 $8,511 −$8,395 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $479 −$479 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 19 $3,508 −$3,508 -100%
Will a team get 13-0'd at BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Jun 19 $5,926 −$5,926 -100%
Will Darmstadt 98 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? Jun 19 $409 −$409 -100%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Drake feature Nicki Minaj on ICEMAN? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Jun 19 $1,491 −$1,491 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 133.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jay-Z attend the Met Gala? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dan Thomas be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Jun 19 $797 −$797 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Jun 19 $9,464 −$9,464 -100%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 19 $470 −$470 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Jun 19 $119 −$119 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 19 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Jun 19 $239 −$177 -74%
Clippers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,983 −$1,983 -100%
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Jun 19 $2,000 −$1,988 -99%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will "Mother Mary" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 Week of April 20 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of May 4 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 158.5 Jun 19 $260 −$290 -112%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 19 $8 +$326 +3915%
Will Timothée Chalamet be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? Jun 19 $0 −$4 -1774%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Jun 19 $1,599 −$3,445 -216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2m
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2m
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3m
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 6¢ $12 5m
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $90 24m
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY No 54¢ $810 1h
Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $587 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $473 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $321 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $380 2h
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 2h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $509 2h
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 3h
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 3h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 63¢ $40 3h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 63¢ $37 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $954 3h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 17¢ $59 3h
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $300 3h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? SELL Yes 92¢ $545 4h
U.S. Open: First Time Winner? SELL Yes 52¢ $69 4h
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $11 5h
GMGN FDV above $900M one day after launch BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 7h
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 8¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136,944.78 · official $136,964.99 (match) · 3500 history records