Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:30:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8457…78af other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$513 (-42%) realized +$31 · open −$544
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$544
sports 42% −$513
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$513 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$544
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage135d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $554 $116 −$438 (-79%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-49%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $513 −$513 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $258 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $307 1h
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY Astralis 44¢ $513 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.06 · official $144.65 · 9 history records