Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x8457…4a82 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$291 (-3%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$4
other 22% $0
crypto 18% −$287
economics 7% $0
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 65 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 2% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -12.7%
10% -21.0% 0% -21.1%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage580d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 22 $30 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February Mar 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $175 in November? Dec 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? Nov 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on November Nov 10 $392 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November Nov 10 $650 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 07 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Sep 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $105K on July 14? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? May 03 $20 $0 +1%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,065 $0 +0%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $8 +$2 +19%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +3%
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? Jan 16 $1 $0 +1%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? Jan 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will Fine Gael win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parlia Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will USR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will another party win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary el Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Harris win Maine by 5+ points? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? Nov 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $186 $0 -0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? Nov 21 $369 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Nov 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 21 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $31 32d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 62d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $30 104d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $8 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $31 162d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $31 182d
Will Google dip to $175 in November? BUY No 100¢ $31 212d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $270 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $650 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $392 228d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 257d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $200 257d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $200 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 166 history records