Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x845a…5606 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+2%) realized −$64 · open +$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$484
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$62
tech 10% +$40
other 9% +$66
economics 5% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.2% -12.5% 45% 41% -17.6%
≤30d 48 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 46% -11.0%
≤90d 48 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 46% -11.0%
all 48 +5.0% -5.0% 50% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 46% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 46% -19.5%
15% -22.4% 46% -27.3%
20% -30.0% 46% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$117 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 54
History coverage8d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 55¢ 84¢ $152 $230 +$79 (+52%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $174 $188 +$14 (+8%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 83¢ $92 $166 +$74 (+80%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $105 $99 −$6 (-6%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 51¢ 64¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+25%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $108 +$192 +178%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$18 +150%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 +$57 +108%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $54 +$85 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $174 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $80 +$74 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $128 +$122 +96%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$94 +89%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$60 +150%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $89 +$60 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$219 +268%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $171 −$119 -69%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $301 +$29 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $381 −$238 -62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $126 −$124 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $325 −$325 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$10 +108%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $186 +$124 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $95 −$95 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $110 +$90 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $185 +$135 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $117 +$132 +113%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $215 −$215 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $128 −$128 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $204 +$196 +96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $138 +$162 +117%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $288 +$466 +162%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $308 −$308 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $96 +$104 +108%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $100 +$100 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $110 +$90 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $104 +$96 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in BUY No 51¢ $13 13m
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in BUY No 51¢ $15 2h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $107 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $12 22h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 55¢ $32 22h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $80 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $15 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $108 29h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 55¢ $121 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $62 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $53 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 82¢ $114 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $54 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $99 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $75 43h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 35¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 35¢ $19 44h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 50¢ $90 44h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 50¢ $5 44h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 50¢ $5 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 13¢ $18 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $61 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $12 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $12 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 44¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $736.90 · official $736.90 (match) · 201 history records