Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x845c…bd64 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$229 (-10%) realized −$211 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%58W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$195
sports 24% −$16
weather 3% −$17
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.1% -7.6% 54% 54% -11.0%
≤30d 16 +3.2% -6.6% 56% 56% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 47% -19.2%
all 117 -11.2% -19.7% 50% 50% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 50% -18.2%
10% -27.3% 48% -26.0%
15% -34.4% 44% -33.1%
20% -40.8% 37% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage209d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$11 +24%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$33 +47%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$23 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $54 −$7 -14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 +$21 +102%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -2%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $30 +$20 +66%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $30 +$25 +83%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-25? May 07 $10 +$10 +97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $20 +$6 +31%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $51 −$50 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Clube do Remo vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to Score Apr 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $20 +$13 +67%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Botafogo FR vs. Caracas FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $50 +$49 +97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $10 +$19 +188%
EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $20 +$16 +82%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $30 +$33 +110%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-01? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $10 +$6 +61%
SC Internacional vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Coritiba FBC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score Apr 02 $10 +$10 +97%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $75 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $56 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $45 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $42 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 23d
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 28d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 28d
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 28d
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 36d
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $32.40 (match) · 270 history records