Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x845c…8cae weather 687 markets active 2d ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate87%599W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% $0
crypto 28% +$3
sports 5% −$17
other 2% $0
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.8% -18.4% 67% 33% -25.5%
≤30d 65 -3.0% -12.2% 75% 25% -14.3%
≤90d 422 -0.5% -10.0% 89% 21% -10.2%
all 686 +0.0% -9.5% 87% 20% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 20% -11.1%
10% -18.2% 6% -19.6%
15% -26.1% 5% -27.4%
20% -33.3% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses599 / 87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)686 / 687
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 26? May 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 86¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 80¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 82¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 82¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 84¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30? BUY No 85¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? BUY No 86¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma SELL No 31¢ $0 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.35 · official $1.11 · 1766 history records