Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x845d…86ca other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$530 (-28%) realized −$495 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$44
14 days−$543
30 days−$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$474
sports 15% −$83
world 1% −$17
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.6% -27.3% 35% 35% -15.6%
≤30d 24 -27.0% -34.0% 33% 33% -36.0%
≤90d 24 -27.0% -34.0% 33% 33% -36.0%
all 24 -27.0% -34.0% 33% 33% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 33% -36.0%
10% -40.3% 33% -42.1%
15% -46.1% 33% -47.7%
20% -51.4% 17% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$63 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$495
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage11d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 73¢ 22¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$36 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$28 +40%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$59 +381%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$41 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$17 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$17 -82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$134 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $613 −$610 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $495 +$215 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $117 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $52 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 41h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $99 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.41 · official $15.41 (match) · 44 history records