Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8460…d023 crypto 1307 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-3%) realized −$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate77%1012W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$5
14 days−$0
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$296
sports 0% +$14
other 0% +$3
tech 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -7.8% -16.6% 71% 54% -12.7%
≤30d 229 -14.0% -22.2% 68% 48% -21.6%
≤90d 1306 -4.9% -14.0% 77% 41% -13.4%
all 1306 -4.9% -14.0% 77% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 41% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 19% -21.7%
15% -29.7% 9% -29.2%
20% -36.6% 4% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1012 / 294
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1306 / 1307
History coverage74d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 31¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $7 +$4 +51%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $7 +$4 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $8 +$5 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $11 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $5 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $2 17h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $6 17h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 86¢ $5 18h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $2 21h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $13 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $1.77 (match) · 2992 history records