Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8464…ad2c crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$296 (+12%) realized +$296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.1% -4.9% 86% 14% -4.9%
≤30d 10 +8.9% -1.5% 90% 30% -2.1%
≤90d 33 +2.2% -7.6% 73% 48% -0.9%
all 33 +2.2% -7.6% 73% 48% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 48% -0.9%
10% -16.4% 27% -10.4%
15% -24.5% 21% -19.0%
20% -31.9% 15% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.01 per $1 lost it wins $5.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage69d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $204 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $204 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $206 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $204 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $205 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $204 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $102 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 23 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 24 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 22 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 22 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$8 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 21 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 18 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $193 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $215 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $206 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $228 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $204 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $214 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $203 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $217 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $205 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $215 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $203 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $226 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $249 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $204 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $124 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $122 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $90 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $147 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $10 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records