Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8464…c1bd crypto 528 markets active 3d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate80%420W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$13
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -4.2% -13.3% 81% 34% -10.9%
≤30d 528 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 32% -9.3%
≤90d 528 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 32% -9.3%
all 528 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 32% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 32% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 19% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 12% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses420 / 108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)528 / 528
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 528 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1056 history records