Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8466…ba27 crypto 146 markets active 3d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%80W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -5.9% -14.8% 58% 53% -15.0%
≤30d 146 -7.1% -15.9% 55% 50% -16.0%
≤90d 146 -7.1% -15.9% 55% 50% -16.0%
all 146 -7.1% -15.9% 55% 50% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 50% -16.0%
10% -24.0% 49% -24.0%
15% -31.3% 42% -31.4%
20% -38.1% 34% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses80 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records